What's Gonna Happen Next?

[Entendance]

<...We're coming off a huge period of overconfidence. The pendulum is swinging to no confidence...>

http://www.dailywealth.com/

[john san antonio]

John Bogle said:

As a rule of thumb, he says an investor's percentage holdings in bonds should equal their age. So if an investor is 40, he or she should allocate 40 percent of assets to bonds and 60 percent to stocks.

Given that stocks can easily fall further before rebounding, some investors should avoid the market now, according to Bogle. "If you cannot afford to lose another penny, then you have no recourse but to get out."

I'll be 63 in January, do you guys put any "stock" in Bogles' equation? What bonds would you suggest, if any? Thanks, Johnny

[Entendance]

JOHN, if, according to Jesse, this is the expectation [ < selective default > ]
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... ively.html
then precious metals should be the right place to be invested in.

(...the mindset the guys who are driving the price down are trying to create. Gold doesn’t work so keep away from it. They’re able to control the price quite easily in the paper markets because the paper markets are so huge in comparison. “The guys” – the central banks and their bullion bank accomplices—have a lot of power and a lot of money, so they can overwhelm the other side...
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/1797 )

Don’t go in these things for the short term. That’s just a wild gamble.
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/1799

[john san antonio]

Thank you, E! Valuable information. I am grateful to be rubbing shoulders with this august group of financial experts. It's slowly coming together for me thanks to you and the other gents here on the beach!

Many thanks and best wishes,

Johnny

[Entendance]

3 Predictions For The Post-Meltdown Global Economy
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articl ... onomy/7678


“Deflation now, inflation later”
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articl ... llars/7659


The Next Bubble: Treasury Borrowing for Quarter to be $408 Billion More Than Expectedhttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Why Isn't Jason Zweig Bashing Gold?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103655- ... shing-gold


IN ROUGH SEAS THERE IS NO NEED TO GO GOGGLING - THE FISH ARE SUSPENDED IN THE WAVES.
[THIS is behind my desk ]

[toutisf]

Europe, in particular, will suffer a debilitating period of economic contraction. The European Central Bank has followed a tight money policy for too long, resulting in an overvalued currency with relative competitiveness impeded by an inflexible labor system difficult to unwind. The ECB lacks the wide-ranging powers of the Fed, limiting the ability to implement coordinated fiscal policy within the Euro bloc.

Yes the banking "elite" just want to CUTCUTCUT as that's the only thing markets are rewarding now

Screw the people, screw inflation, screw everything just CUT and print: let's Wall Street make money while the house is burning.

BOE cut rates 1.50% and GBP was able to initially pull a rally!

Where Europe is heading? Things are turning very sour for the Euro because good day or bad day Euro is down now.

I thought Europe would have learned the lessons from the past but no: they are going to get a good spanking by uncle Sam.

Competitive devaluations means we can compete as slaves on the worldwide wage markets while financials and speculators of all sorts will continue to gamble the house and be bailed out by us workers whenever they loose.

What makes me mad is that Trichet is right because the FIRST AND FOREMOST mandate we gave ECB at Maastricht is price stability and people are complaining now about the ECB being not enough "accomodating" because banksters have completely brainwashed them

WTF is going on?

As long as USD continue to move north there will be absolutely 0 hope for gold because people are far too happy with their greenbacks.

The only thing that can save gold now is an hyperinflationary environment and I really don't understand how can people who own gold can wish for that when they are going to loose almost everything.

And forget about the puppet Obama as he will just do what his masters at the CFR and Bilderberg clubs will ask him to do.

Just funny how he rose from an obscure lawyer in Illinois to President-elect in less than 3 years!

I guess they needed someone with a new face to do the mopping job and after taking the oath to serve them well they thought a black guy would be fine for the sheeple because he would look like less like them: the devil has a fresh new look!

Everyone here seems to be happy making money and I am thinking what the heck is that?

Markets lost 40%, gold lost 20%, miners are down 60%, oil is down 60%.

The same people who where bullish on those markets are claiming they are doing well... Just to funny to watch.

Any fun with UXG, BQI, GDX, GLD, USD puts, OIL calls etc...

We have people like Jesse and E. who have been proven wrong on almost 90% of their calls and they still continue to post the same stuff here without trying to go into any constructing dialog.

You can't even leave a comment on Jesse Cafe Americain... Why? It is because you guys don't like contradiction? You think you know better and everyone else is a moron?

Roubini has an open blog despite his huge credentials so why can't you do the same.

I used to like going on Cafe Americain in the past but not anymore.

I've warned people in the past about what was going to happen and is unfolding now for gold, miners and USD because I tried to document myself a lot and I came to my OWN analysis and what? I don't brag.

People just derided me and now they can't stand I was right because the truth is blowing in their face

This is not bragging but I am tired to see people who have made bad bad calls constantly bragging and I just want to set the things on an even balance.

Yes go ahead E. remove my message as you don't want to have anyone contradict you.

I thought you were more open than that and seems I was wrong.

What I am seeing here is a big pile of utter bs nothing more that's it!

Bye for now or forever... Your choice.

[dlry]

You know for a guy that made a lot of money your a pretty pissed off fellow, and even though there is a lot of truth to what you said in your post... I don't think anyone can really claim to be happy with how commodity/gold related assets have performed over the past 3-6 months or the juniors in general.

I think your wrong though when you say we need hyperinflation...we do need a reflation( and we're getting it with ongoing hedge fund liquidations). Besides the conflict between the paper and physical markets, Sprott makes an important point about gold not being anyone else's liability...even with all the chaos the credit markets have endured, how often do you hear people use that as an excuse to move their money into gold? not much....why do you think the fed made the move to insure money markets? to get that off your mind.....Couple that with a world financial asset base valuation of $150 trillion where only $3 trillion is comprised of gold http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sprot ... 10608.html what do you think would happen if some of this money was ever reallocated to some degree? think of it in terms of a re-balancing...these are illiquid markets..do you remember how otc markets use to trade? Can you say wide as in wide market? At some point I think these markets will trade like that.

Everyone is perplexed by this lack of causality even Coxe from BMO but does that mean they are all wrong? not exactly ..it just means their timing was off... http://events.startcast.com/events/199/ ... tframe.asp

As far as Jesse's site...what's the deal? are you an old girlfriend?....(Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned) I mean I don't know the guy but I like the information he posts...I hope your comments don't dissuade his efforts...I don't think I ever saw a stock recommendation there...so you might want to point out why your analysis differs from his on this site but please stop the confrontational overtures....it adds nothing to your analysis.(I hope no one minds that I posted this).

[toutisf]

Hi dlry,

Thanks for accepting to discuss, I think it is a sane approach.

First I didn't make "tons of money" during the last 6 months because I stayed in cash as I was seeing something like that coming so in fact I actually lost money as cash is trash (but not as much if I've been in the markets)

I am fed up about people repeating again and again the old gold mantras (like gold has been here for 5,000 years blablabla, gold is no-one liability blablabla etc etc...)

For thousands of years people believed that the earth was flat so what?

I enjoyed very much going to Jesse's blog and I have a high esteem for his work but whenever I go there I see the same old stuff posted again and again.

We don't need doom and gloom articles about Goldman Sachs posted each and every two days. What we need is analysis of what is happening now and why so we can make our own minds and take our own decisions and Jesse with his great knowledge could really help us here.

We can leave the "prediction" stuff for gurus and sect leaders of the Solar Temple Order and other martyrs to be.

[limo_888]

[color=#400040][b]Bye for now or forever... Your choice.

If it's up to me, I say "Bye forever". In my opinion, this forum is a place where we can get information, post, debate and response freely without any judgement. However, it should not be a place for shouting match and openly criticize other. If you want to do that, please join the McCain and Palin forum.

[dlry]

Look at what you said:
"I am fed up about people repeating again and again the old gold mantras (like gold has been here for 5,000 years blablabla, gold is no-one liability blablabla etc etc...)"
Besides land what asset has held it's value over the time period you cite? Not many.

From the sounds of it you seem a little suspicious of organized groups ie you mentioned Bilderberg's...well let's just say you add IMF, FED, etc and let's say they have a little influence on how the world works....do they care what our perceptions about the monetary system are? individually, probably not but as a group I'd say yes. Do they need credibility? I'd say definitely yes...do you think they are losing credibility? hmmm...to me they are goose eggs....other people believe their the smartest guys in the room...I think (and I could be wrong) Jesse shows the average joe these guys (the goldman's of the world) are not better prepared but better connected and are not above suspicion.

I think we are all here trying to piece together why the normal cause/effect of previous relationships have been thwarted. Why is it when oil goes up, thats bad for gold, when oil goes down, thats bad for gold, when money supply increases, thats non inflationary, when the fed drains reserves thats non inflationary, etc...that's the real numbing mantra played over and over..why? because it serves someone's interest.
Added later: I remembered viewing a few videos by Lebaron which I thought was poignant to this discussion...they are transcripts now.
Friday - September 15

The Big Lie Video Series

This is a series of 13 videos that ran here from 8/31 - 9/8, and I thought I would gather them together in one place. I'd been thinking about the way language is being used to reshape perceptions away from reality, even while it is difficult to do in this age of global news, blogs and new cynicism towards authority sources. Government became the most visible example especially the US administration that prides itself as "staying on message" to teach us to think their way, not necessarily the right way. But civil institutions are at least as guilty although perhaps not as skillful. Finally I thought of what we learned about propaganda from that master of the art, Goebbels.

Which led to a list of words and phases designed to pull us away from reality toward someone else's perceptions. The list grew out of control and could have continued. I stopped not because I was running out of examples, I'm sorry to say, but because I wanted to think about something else.

Hope you find the list as instructive as I did and have your mental guard up.
http://www.deanlebaron.com/realmedia/y2006/vbiglie.html


Do you think these words apply to gold? I do.
Which led to a list of words and phases designed to pull us away from reality toward someone else's perceptions.



I sometimes wonder if the whole effort into gold and related securities is worth it ....but jeez how in the hell are we getting out of this mess? I thought things were bad before ie declining incomes for a vast majority of people, high debt levels, bubble real estate, etc . I guess if your a talented lawyer, doctor, work for a large company with full health benefit/ good salary or are retired from a state job with a good pension your doing very well but many small business owners I know are struggling. What happened to goldilocks? I think the bear ate her. At this point we are either printing or taxing and we are still not close to fixing housing or the banks..so what's your argument against gold?


BTW, think of the implications of this...did not see this on tv today...why?
http://www.voxcapitalgroup.com/blog/?p=200