2010: chickens come home to roost.

[Entendance]

Cyclical Outlook
You can only eat what’s in the cafeteria, and right now the cafeteria doesn’t have anything particularly appetizing in it.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/PIMCO+Spot ... r+2009.htm


The key will be whether or not the market can hold on to those (ill-gotten) gains once normal volume levels return. http://tradermike.net/2010/01/first_loo ... s_for_2010

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[Entendance]

...and when the time comes, there may be no place to hide.*
A Warning To Western Governments And Investors
For those who forgot this is what happened in the Nasdaq...
...Remember this? Remember Cramer's "10 stocks you must buy for the new paradigm?" Remember "The titans of Tech?"
What came next?

Hmmm....
And today?
I will leave you with the following - the last time we played this game we lost everything from December of 1996 to spring of 2000 in less than three years. If we do not stop being stupid - soon - I fully expect we will trade under 500 on the NDX and under 600 on the S&P.
http://tinyurl.com/yepj46l

According to Charles Biderman of TrimTabs, the investment flow monitoring company,
"We cannot identify the source of the new money [in 2009] that pushed stock prices up so far so fast.
"We know that the U.S. government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support the auto industry, the housing market, and the banks and brokers. Why not support the stock market as well? The source of approximately $600 billion net new cash necessary to lift the market's overall capitalization by $6 trillion last year could not be identified. The money didn't come from traditional players such as companies, retail investors, foreign investors, hedge funds or pension funds.
The Federal Reserve or the Treasury, Biderman said, could have easily manipulated the stock market by purchasing $60 to $70 billion worth of futures of the S&P 500 Index on a monthly basis."
This socialization of the markets is just another symptom that the financial markets, as well as the economy, are zombie already, unable to function on their own and dependent entirely upon the public sector to support their excessive valuations. How long the taxpayer is willing to play this game is the only unknown.
-Bob Carver at Market Clues
Double-Dip Risk Seen in ‘Stall Speed’ Recovery: Stephen Roach
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... J8dLRoGYgU
Phony Growth from Fiscal Stimulus
http://dailyreckoning.com/phony-growth- ... -stimulus/

*
http://tinyurl.com/yaq4368
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[Entendance]

Chinese pride comes as exports crash by 16% in 2009.Pride usually comes before a fall.
Jim Chanos says China crash will be Dubai x1000
http://tinyurl.com/yda3vcw



At its core, the Minsky view was straightforward: When times are good, investors take on risk; the longer times stay good, the more risk they take on, until they've taken on too much. Eventually, they reach a point where the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. "This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values," Mr. Minsky wrote.
When investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand for cash. At that point, the Minsky moment has arrived.
The Minsky moment is, once again, knocking on the door.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/minsky ... approaches

things are generally worse now than they were at the same point during prior episodes
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010 ... cture.html

It is too late to debate. A debt-fueled crash is imminent
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articl ... sive/21272

The Advance From The March Lows Has Exceeded Most First Phase Market Advances http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2010/ ... eeded.html

FATAL PARADOX
http://inpoints.blogspot.com/2010/01/ni ... knack.html

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[defio70]

..Wall Street may effectively own Washington DC and the politicians but they do not own us.
WE THE PEOPLE ARE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO ACCEPT THIS.
WE HAVE RIGHTS.
WE THE PEOPLE have the freedom to associate - or not.
WE THE PEOPLE have the right to demand legal tender in payment of debts owed us.
WE THE PEOPLE have the right to demand that these institutions eat their own cooking on each and every one of the loans they securitized and peddled during these years without fair and full disclosure to the buyers that these loans were rife with fraud.
WE THE PEOPLE have the right - and the ability - to take personal, lawful action with specific, lawful political and business-oriented goals, including permanent structural changes that will end "too big to fail" and "rip off the consumer on demand" policies, including the full reinstatement of Glass-Steagall which will END financial speculation and dealing in all of its forms by firms that have access to Federal Reserve credit and/or any sort of public backstop.
In the coming days and weeks I will outline specific, lawful actions that I hope each and every financial blogger, writer and columnist will take up and push as the key item for the remainder of this year and, if necessary, beyond - all with the intent of accomplishing these goals.

I invite all financial bloggers, mainstream media writing or broadcasting on the financial markets and products and interested politicians to contact me at "karl <at> starve-the-beast <dot> org" with the explicit purpose of joining an effort to formulate cogent and real, tangible yet lawful actions that can effect positive and necessary change. Further posts to The Market Ticker will be made under the Category "Starve The Beast" - so you can find them all in one place.
Make this message - this post - viral. Send it to your associates. Send it to the media. Send it to politicians. Get involved and do it now.
The opportunity is now and our responsibility is clear. We either accept that responsibility and act or we are consenting to serial asset bubbles and ever-larger detonations, with the very real risk that the next one destroys our political and economic system both in the United States and beyond...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... nough.html

[Entendance]

...First the governments bail out the banks who were (are) basically insolvent. Then these governments, especially in Europe, see their balance sheets explode and face escalating concerns over sovereign default. The IMF now predicts that the government debt-to-GDP ratio in the G20 nations will explode to 118% by 2014 from pre-crisis levels of around 80%.
Now, the ball is put back onto the banks because many have exposure to the areas of Europe that are facing substantial fiscal problems right now. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.K. banks have $193 billion of exposure to Ireland. German banks have the same amount of exposure and an additional $240 billion to Spain. Many international bond mutual funds also have sizeable exposure to sovereign debt of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain as well...
http://tinyurl.com/y8nj7js

Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... se-in.html


INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=458&p=9593#p9593


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[Entendance]

Hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro

http://tinyurl.com/yz8om4x

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... le-of.html



Dennis Gartman: The Euro Is ‘Doomed’ http://tinyurl.com/yabxu4l



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[Entendance]

Our friend Jesse writes:

A more serious market crash might cause people to recognize the severity of their problems, and the thinness of the arguments of the monied interests for the status quo which is most clearly unsustainable.

We “run money” for a living,since 1978, trading for very demanding clients who expect to make money every year — even in a year like this.The only sure thing in trading is that you’ll be wrong at some point. The secret to winning big in the market is not to be right all the time but to lose the least amount of money possible when you are wrong. As long as you win larger than you lose, you will be a profitable trader at the end of each year. Pride, ego and stubbornness prevents a trader from reaching the levels that very few can master. Again, take note: in 2010 survival is still the name of the game.Act accordingly
Pictures of a Market Crash: Beware the Ides of March, And What Follows After
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... es-of.html

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[Entendance]

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said his government is discovering “new holes” in the budget on a daily basis as it prepares to announce as much as 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion) in extra deficit cuts.

National Leaders Ignored Greece's Soaring Debt for Years
http://tinyurl.com/yzywd2q

What CDS Speculators? The Reason Why Greek Spreads Blew Up Is Because Of Bond Selling, Not CDS Buying
http://tinyurl.com/y9whzgx

Goebbels' rule:
"It is the absolute right of the state to supervise the formation of public opinion." Paul Joseph Goebbels
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=738&p=9708#p9708

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[Entendance]

Ali Baba and the Forty Bankers? Worse than that.

The Startling Link Between Globalisation and Bank Fraud

In this new war, politics, as the organiser of the nation state, no longer exists. Now politics serves solely in order to manage the economy, and politicians are now merely company managers...
http://tinyurl.com/yccdmrc

"There will be blood."

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[sowhat]

the market is now trading both technically and on a fundamental basis, exactly as the Nasdaq was in 1999.
http://tinyurl.com/ydlq5d4