"I CAN SEE THE FUTURE" [dumb all over]

[sowhat]

Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse
http://tinyurl.com/3yokss2

[dlry]

GOLD/SILVER
Richard Russell’s commentary on US debt and then gold is superb…

Now I want to reveal my latest thoughts, which have finally come together. The US has a national debt of $13 trillion (that's trillion, not billion). There's no way in God's name that the US can ever pay off that debt. Actually, if the US does nothing the interest on the debt will eat up the nation. Worse, aside from the national debt the US has over $50 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

To put it frankly, the US is facing a debt future that can not be solved by cutting back on expenses and raising taxes. Even if the US taxed away all the income and profits of individuals and all corporate profits, the government would still not be able pay off its debts.

In my opinion, the US MUST default on its debt. There are two ways to default. One is simply to renege on the debt. I don't think the US would ever do that. If the US did that, nobody would ever deal with the US again. The other way to default on the debt is to inflate it away. I'm absolutely convinced that this is the path that the US will take. If the US inflates enough, then over time (many years) the devalued dollar will tend of reduce the power of the debts…

Lastly, what about gold? Gold formed a head-and-shoulders pattern. The pattern broke down, and August gold sank to 1156. But there gold held. It was if a net closed under gold. The plunge scared many of the late gold-buyers out of the market. Since its July 27 low, gold has been quietly creeping higher.

My guess is that gold has bottomed. Too many investors and too many central banks are potential buyers of gold. And they are 'bottom-fishing."

As far as I'm concerned, the "word" is out. The US will default on its monster debts. The US will default via systematic inflation. This will gradually "kill" the dollar. The protection against declining purchasing power of the dollar (brought on by Fed inflation) is gold.

As this is recognized by the masses, gold will move higher. Ultimately, this will develop into the speculative third phase of the gold bull market. The Russell opinion -- this is the time for gold accumulation and patience, a lot of patience.

Question -- Russell, I see a few of the smartest hedge fund managers (Soros, John Paulsen) have been buying heavily into gold mining shares. So, gold bullion or gold mining shares, which should we buy?

Answer -- The fund managers don't want a "safe-haven" position in gold -- they want potential profits. I believe the fund managers who are stocking up on gold mining shares are thinking that a speculative third phase in gold lies somewhere ahead. They're thinking that if gold explodes on the upside, the gold mining shares will go nuts. The shares will go crazy because they have the leverage. It will not cost them any more to mine gold even if the price of gold advances (yes, but union labor may cost more, and there will be the problem of higher taxes.

So I'll admit it -- if gold goes nuts on the upside, fortunes will be made by those holding gold shares. But I still prefer the actual product -- bullion gold. It's a cleaner play, no worries about a mine running out of reserves, no worries about union wage-boosts, no worries about political back-lash or confiscation, just fewer worries. And I avoid worries whenever I can.

To wind it up, I don't care for the stock market's action, but I do like gold's action. Gold and cash, that's where I want to be. And I'd be happy if my subscribers would copy my position.

-END-

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http://tinyurl.com/83d259

[defio70]

http://tinyurl.com/2c9k8xn

http://tinyurl.com/3xlyrly

http://tinyurl.com/3cnnbc

[GSIMMERLE]

The Associated Press has posted an interactive version of its Economic Stress Index, which reveals in graphic detail how economic conditions have evolved since late-2007.
Below is a snapshot showing the changes in the combined impact of unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcy in the 50 U.S. states in November 2007, before the recession began, and in June of this year...
http://tinyurl.com/358kmc4

[Entendance]

You can't have a freefalling September/October without an irrational light-volume levitation act in July/August. Just remember that. The market is geared to deceive, just like in 2000. Look at that year as the analogue to what's happening now.
The market peaked in March 2000, and started acting wildly and nervously in April/May......by summer, things had stabilized and the NAZ actually got back above 4,000 by Labor Day. Then all hell broke loose, and the free-fall didn't end until the final hanging chads were examined by late December.
Patience.
-ColoradoNugget

http://tinyurl.com/2bgkshc




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8ts53F6MEA

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[dlry]

U.S. Economy
U.S. Stocks
The Echo Bubble Stock Market On Mega Moral Hazard Steroids
They Do Not Admit It, But Everyone Knows It Is A Mega Moral Hazard Market

From: Frank Veneroso
August 9, 2010

For almost a year now I have called the stock market an echo bubble on mega moral hazard steroids. This characterization has been dismissed by almost everyone as quirky, odd, and perhaps "politically incorrect".

There can be no doubt these days that the U.S. stock market is a moral hazard market. Everyone from 80 Wall Street to Wasatch, Indiana believes that imminent decisions by the Fed and the Treasury to proceed with Great Bailout II is what today’s stock market is all about.

I have argued that the mega moral hazard echo bubble market is all about the psychology of manias, panics, and crashes and not about traditional fundamentals such as earnings. I have argued that this market is a knife edge poised to rise further on a sustained belief in policy puts provided by Bernanke and Geithner and at the same time poised to crash if the credibility of those puts dissipates.

In what follows I discuss this world of two fat tails with little in between as a case of a bimodal distribution based on multiple market equilibria: one equilibrium based upon confidence in the alleged policy puts and the other based on loss of confidence, leaving investors to focus above all on the huge downside risks that have asserted themselves now twice in the recent past.

In the moral hazard echo bubble, like in all bubbles, it is psychology and not fundamentals that rule the day. In a market removed from fundamentals technical patterns are everything. This technically minded market chooses to focus on the Fed’s possible launch of a QE II just below the new technical magic number of S&P 1131. This is so apparent in recent market action.
-END-

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[Entendance]

...The best investments during another deflationary episode, which will be like 2008 in its effect on the markets, only worse, will be cash and short-expiry bonds, and bear ETFs. The dollar should recover strongly and is already beginning to as predicted on the site. Pretty much everything else will crash, including most commodities and stocks...
http://tinyurl.com/29byjqm

bear ETFs viewtopic.php?f=17&t=391&start=190#p11608

CISCO: Anyone Remember LUCENT?

CISCO better pray that I'm wrong in my macro view, because if I'm not things are going to get very interesting for them
http://tinyurl.com/23hjcod

Fucking exactly. Banks make money lending & repossessing. They don't make money devaluing holdings. QE I was all about driving new lending activity; QE II is simply a jawboning rear-guard action to protect member banks while they prepare to seize/buy assets for pennies on the dollar with all those $trillions in ready money stolen from the People.
- B9K9
You've nailed it. All we will see is the bankster gang getting richer and the average taxpayer getting poorer. Bernokio is a f*cking bankster godfather or a complete idiot - or maybe some combination thereof. Responsible people - worldwide - have been scr*wed royally and the pillaging by the phantom financial "economy" will continue. Moral hazards are the "junk" injected by the politicians to keep their suppliers happy.
-island

TrimTabs Demonstrates Why US Final Demand Is Weak And Why Fed Interventions Are Pointless
http://tinyurl.com/2uu7d7y

Another day, another desperate attempt by GE's propaganda branch to keep its viewers disconnected with reality. Case in point: Bob Pisani, who has now said about 100 times that "volume was very low, no bids were hit, etc, etc." The truth: yes to the latter, and a blatant lie on the former... http://tinyurl.com/34cfxtr

Hindenburg Omen confirmed as equities slump, buy short ETFs
http://tinyurl.com/23wuemj







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[defio70]

So yesterday, depending on exactly who's numbers you use, we got either a confirmed Hindenburg observation or a "rounded" one...
...
This larger pattern is confirmed and targets SPX 880, which by most people's definition will come dangerously close to being a "crash", approaching 20% down from here.
I won't show you the last and most-ominous pattern - but if you pull up a monthly 20 year chart you should see it, given the previous two. No, 880 won't confirm that - we will have to violate the March 2009 lows to confirm that pattern. But if we do...... well, you do the math.
Trade wisely, young Skywalker......
http://tinyurl.com/3yvuevo

Oh The Huge Manatee! (Hindenburg Omen)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F54rqDh2mWA

Hindenburg Omen Reached Again: Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent?
http://tinyurl.com/3y9me6f

[GSIMMERLE]

What the bond market is really saying is that the recession never really ended.

Today’s Sell-Off is Brought to You by The Letter D
http://tinyurl.com/36fxvd2

[Entendance]

http://tinyurl.com/37nfbwb


"Dollar Would Be Stronger Without the Fed"
http://tinyurl.com/34kxb9n

A BIG VOTE OF “NO CONFIDENCE” IN GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION
http://tinyurl.com/2w7n6r5

GDP revision...The only question is how bad will it be.

...The real challenge for the Fed and President Obama is to admit neither the Fed's policies nor Congressional policies are working, that there are no short-term cures or fixes, and that it is time to share the pain more equitably including huge concessions from public unions, a haircut by Fannie and Freddie bondholders, and a reduction in unsustainable spending, especially military spending.
Unfortunately, neither Bernanke, nor Obama is capable of saying what needs to be said, or doing what needs to be done. Unless and until they are, all the yapping by Obama and Bernanke will be as productive as giving a bullhorn to a bullfrog...
http://tinyurl.com/3483bgp

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